1-Butene Market - Global Forecast 2025-2030

The 1-Butene Market size was estimated at USD 854.63 million in 2024 and expected to reach USD 899.27 million in 2025, at a CAGR 4.98% to reach USD 1,144.24 million by 2030.

The production of 1-butene in the United States has demonstrated a relatively flat trajectory over the past decade, with volumes peaking at approximately 5.9 million metric tons in 2013 before stabilizing around 4.6 million tons in 2024. Despite a slight 0.1% year-over-year decline in 2024, output remains a vital component of North America’s petrochemical landscape, underpinning both domestic manufacturing and export flows.

Across the Pacific, integrated petrochemical complexes in Asia have leveraged captive C4 streams to maintain utilization rates upward of 90%, reflecting a strategic emphasis on feedstock integration and operational efficiency. This disparity in production economics has driven U.S. exporters to Latin American markets at a 9% compound annual growth rate since 2020, underscoring the global interconnectedness of 1-butene supply and demand.

Against this backdrop of established production networks, 1-butene has emerged as a cornerstone raw material for polyolefin polymers, synthetic rubbers, and a suite of fine chemical intermediates. Its versatility in tailoring molecular weight distributions for applications ranging from high-performance flexible packaging to automotive sealants highlights the compound’s integral role in modern manufacturing value chains.

Technological innovation continues to redefine how 1-butene is produced and commercialized. Conventional steam crackers that yield mixed C4 fractions remain the workhorses of many petrochemical hubs, yet on-purpose metathesis units are gaining traction as operators seek more predictable output and higher product purity. Moreover, pilot projects harnessing biomass-derived ethanol for 1-butene synthesis are increasing capital intensity by 20–25% but promise insulation from fossil price volatility, attracting interest in regions committed to reducing carbon footprints.

Simultaneously, regulatory imperatives are reshaping investment decisions. The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, set to levy $45–60 per metric ton on fossil-based chemicals from 2026 onward, has already triggered approximately €120 million in bio-butene project financing within Germany. These policy signals foreshadow a broader realignment of trade flows as producers of renewable 1-butene secure competitive advantages in carbon-regulated markets.

Meanwhile, public and private R&D initiatives across North America, Europe, and Asia are accelerating breakthroughs in catalytic conversion, fermentation processes, and advanced separation techniques. Government grants directed at bio-refinery projects have catalyzed the commercialization of next-generation biotechnological pathways, opening new frontiers for high-purity 1-butene production and reinforcing the industry’s pivot toward sustainable feedstocks.

In early 2025, the United States reinstated sweeping reciprocal tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, imposing a baseline 10% duty on all imports effective April 5 and elevated rates-up to 25%-for bilateral trade with major partners on April 9. These measures encompass chemical feedstocks, including C4 fractions, thereby elevating landed costs for downstream processors reliant on imported 1-butene streams.

The immediate market reaction saw U.S. chemical equities underperform broader benchmarks, as reflected by a 2.07% drop in the Dow Jones US Chemicals Index on March 3, 2025, signaling investor apprehension about escalating input costs and potential demand contractions. Companies across the value chain grappled with recalibrating sourcing strategies and rebalancing supply portfolios to mitigate tariff-induced headwinds.

Despite the comprehensive scope of these levies, a significant exemption list shields polymers such as polyethylene and polypropylene, as well as large-volume petrochemicals. While this carve-out temporarily cushions core polyolefin producers, industry groups caution that future iterations of tariff policy could extend to additional chemical intermediates. The American Chemistry Council is actively engaging policymakers to advocate for consistency and clarity in trade measures, aiming to preserve supply chain resilience amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

Consequently, market participants are accelerating investments in domestic C4 fraction recovery assets, enhancing flex-flow agreements with regional cracker operators, and exploring forward physical contracts to lock in feedstock availability. This multifaceted response underscores the imperative for agile supply chain management and underscores the evolving nexus between trade policy and raw material security.

Insight into the 1-butene landscape demands appreciation of how critical application domains interface with feedstock grade and production technology choices. For example, the butyl rubber segment addresses industrial products like sealants and inner tubes, relying on chemical and polymer grades calibrated through either extraction of C4 cracker streams or advanced on-purpose metathesis. Concurrently, comonomer derivatives such as HDPE and LLDPE are optimized for barrier performance in flexible and rigid packaging markets, while fine chemicals derived from alcohols and aldehydes cater to pharmaceutical intermediates and solvent formulations.

Layered onto these application dynamics, the grade distinction between chemical and polymer specifications influences purity requirements, downstream processing ease, and cost structures. Meanwhile, technological pathways bifurcate between traditional C4 fraction extraction-leveraging established cracking assets-and on-purpose metathesis routes, which further subdivide into dimerization processes and olefin metathesis catalysts that deliver tailored molecular weight distributions.

End-use industry segmentation underscores the breadth of demand, spanning automotive sectors where 1-butene underpins synthetic rubbers for tires and sealants, construction markets demanding insulation and sealing solutions, as well as electrical, electronics, and a burgeoning packaging sector that differentiates between flexible film applications and rigid container production. Finally, the distribution channel matrix balances direct sales agreements with polymer producers against distributor networks that service regional and specialty markets, ensuring that supply meets nuanced customer specifications.

The Americas continue to anchor global 1-butene production, with U.S. output hovering around 4.6 million tons in 2024 despite incremental production declines. This region’s shale gas advantage and robust petrochemical infrastructure support integrated cracking complexes that funnel C4 streams into both domestic polyolefin units and export agreements with Latin American partners.

In Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA), shifting policy landscapes exert a dual influence: the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism incentivizes bio-based and low-carbon 1-butene, while MENA producers leverage low-cost feedstocks to serve emerging markets in Africa and southern Europe. This dichotomy drives a stratified regional market, where cost competitiveness and regulatory alignment define expansion pathways for both legacy petrochemical players and nascent bio-refinery innovators.

Across Asia-Pacific, legacy integrated producers in Northeast Asia sustain high utilization through captive C4 liquefied streams, while Southeast Asian exporters have increased their European market share from 12% to 18% since 2020. Fueling this growth are capacity expansions in the Gulf Cooperation Council, China’s gradual shift toward higher-purity on-purpose units, and India’s infrastructure investments aimed at shortening logistics chains for rapid market access.

Collectively, these regional nuances illustrate that strategic opportunities for market entry, asset optimization, and offtake partnerships depend on aligning feedstock economics, regulatory compliance frameworks, and end-user demand profiles within each geographical corridor.

Major integrated energy and chemicals companies have undertaken strategic realignment of global facilities in response to cost pressures and market volatility. In Europe, ExxonMobil announced the closure of its Port-Jerome‐sur‐Seine steam cracker, citing persistent uncompetitiveness due to elevated energy prices and small unit scale. Similarly, SABIC has commenced the permanent shutdown of its Geleen naphtha cracker in the Netherlands as part of a broader asset reorientation to prepare the site for future market conditions.

In China, the Sinopec-SABIC venture in Tianjin recently halted its solvents plant operations, reflecting a strategic pause to rebalance production focus and mitigate margin erosion. This move underscores how joint ventures are adapting product stacks and capital deployment to shifting feedstock costs and regional demand trends.

Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific operators continue to capture market share through feedstock integration and agile export strategies. Brazil’s Grupo Idesa has pioneered the use of sugarcane ethanol for on-purpose 1-butene synthesis, locking in feedstock costs and reducing exposure to global naphtha price cycles, which historically impacted roughly 72% of global producers in 2023.

On the innovation front, emergent bio-based butene manufacturers are benefiting from governmental incentives across North America and Europe. Grants and funding directed toward bio-refinery projects have accelerated R&D into fermentation‐based catalytic processes, enabling a new cohort of startups to commercialize high-purity, sustainable 1-butene alternatives that align with stringent carbon regulations and evolving consumer preferences.

To thrive amid volatility in feedstock costs and policy frameworks, industry leaders should prioritize diversification of raw material sources by investing in on-purpose metathesis capacity alongside traditional C4 extraction assets. This dual-path approach can buffer producers against episodic cracker outages or tariff-induced supply disruptions.

Equally important is pursuing strategic partnerships with bio-refinery innovators and technology licensors to accelerate the adoption of renewable 1-butene pathways. Collaboration in pilot facilities and joint R&D ventures can unlock proprietary catalysts and fermentation platforms that mitigate carbon border adjustments and satisfy emergent sustainability mandates.

Robust engagement with policymakers and trade associations remains essential. Proactively contributing to tariff exemption dialogues, carbon pricing consultations, and regional infrastructure planning can preserve market access and ensure that industry perspectives inform regulatory outcomes.

Finally, leveraging advanced analytics and dynamic sourcing models will enhance supply chain agility. By integrating real-time market intelligence, scenario analyses, and digital twin frameworks, companies can optimize logistics, manage inventory buffers, and navigate fluctuating input costs with greater confidence.

This report synthesizes data through a multi-tiered research methodology, commencing with exhaustive secondary research that encompassed industry publications, trade association reports, and regulatory filings to establish foundational context. Complementing this desk work, primary interviews were conducted with senior executives, industry experts, and key technology providers to validate market dynamics and uncover forward-looking perspectives.

Quantitative insights were derived through careful data triangulation, reconciling historical production, trade, and price data from governmental agencies and proprietary databases. Critical assumptions underwent iterative review to ensure consistency and mitigate potential biases.

Additionally, expert validation workshops provided a collaborative forum for cross-checking findings, refining segmentation frameworks, and stress-testing strategic scenarios. This rigorous approach underpins the robustness of the analysis while ensuring transparency and reproducibility across the reported insights.

The confluence of evolving production technologies, shifting regulatory landscapes, and dynamic trade conditions underscores a pivotal inflection point for the 1-butene market. Stakeholders equipped with granular segmentation insights and regional intelligence can navigate complexity and unlock value across the value chain.

Amid tariff headwinds and carbon compliance imperatives, a balanced portfolio that integrates traditional, on-purpose, and bio-based production routes offers the most resilient pathway. Likewise, strategic collaborations and data-driven supply chain optimization will distinguish market leaders in an increasingly competitive environment.

Ultimately, proactive adaptation to feedstock diversification, sustainable innovation, and policy engagement will define success. By synthesizing the core insights from this analysis, decision-makers can chart informed strategies that secure long-term competitiveness and growth within the global 1-butene landscape.

To discuss how this comprehensive analysis can address your strategic priorities or to gain access to the full 1-Butene Market Research Report, please connect with Ketan Rohom, Associate Director, Sales & Marketing. He will guide you through tailored insights and answer any questions to help you make informed decisions in this rapidly evolving market.